Thursday, November 27, 2008

Voters hide, rebels decide?

ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY

Independents seem to hold the key for next Assembly

With people in the Valley turning anti-election, and rebels dogging all the parties, it seems independent MLAs will play the key role in deciding who takes the treasury benches in this state. People are consciously keeping away from election rallies, indicating the voting likely pattern. Among the first phase constituencies, there is no visibility of an election campaign. Last week, people tore off banners and posters of political parties. It seems mainstream political parties in Kashmir can only hope for a miracle to drive voters to the polling stations.

The political landscape in the state dramatically altered after the Amarnath land controversy. Many consider the situation in the Valley similar to that of the early 90s. However, this time separatists are carrying the sentiments of people in the Valley. On the other hand, Jammu has slipped from the hands of mainstream political parties, with people raging against ‘discrimination in the hands of Kashmiri rulers’.

But the most notable aspect of the polls this time is that with the parties’ decision to field only ‘winning’ candidates, there is an army of rebels, and they could well be deciding the future government here. Surprises are expected from several constituencies due to the division of votes, with rebels staying in for the contest. While some rebels have the better chances of winning independently, several others will play lead roles in the defeat of their party candidates by dividing party’s vote in favour of rivals.

Three of the four Assembly seats in Rajouri district have rebels contesting against their own party nominees. None of the rebels of major political parties -- National Conference, Congress, People's Democratic Party and BJP – stayed away from the elections for Darhal, Rajouri and Kalakote Assembly seats of the bordering district.

So far as noise making goes, the PDP election manifesto – titled 'make Self–Rule happen' – echoes its role of filling the political space between separatist and mainstream parties with its soft separatism agenda. It emphasise bringing Jammu and Kashmir politically, economically and constitutionally closer, foreseeing a "shared sovereignty" of a united J&K between India and Pakistan.

NC president Omar Abdullah released his party's Vision Document for J&K "At the political level, the NC Government will try to convince those who have taken recourse to violence and intimidation as means to achieve their goals to come on the dialogue table," the Vision Document says. Meanwhile, the only party displaying lethargy is Congress despite having ruled the state for three years in coalition with the PDP. Though it is open to elections, the party is yet to release a poll manifesto. While former chief minister, Ghulam Nabi Azad, will spearhead the poll campaign, the party lacks a concrete programme to approach the elections held in an environment of strife.


Zubair A Dar & Gary Salewal


For more articles, Click on IIPM Article.
Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and
Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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