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Certainly, a more broad-based global economy is a healthy trend, but at the same time, their robust economic growth has also been pivotal in generating some negative repercussions for the global economy.
However, as compared to earlier financial disruptions, it is startling to note that the direct spillovers of the financial crisis that began in August 2007 have been contained to a large extent. The emerging and developing economies have been less affected by the turbulence in the financial markets. Nevertheless, on account of global integration of the markets (as they are not fully insulated) the financial markets have been jittery in these economies as well. Sample the performance of the last quarter of FY ‘08 in the key markets of emerging economies: Brazil, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, MSCI Asia, Japan, India and China have respectively given negative returns to the tune of 4.6%, 4.8%, 10.2%, 10.3%, 11.5%, 18.2%, 22.9%, and 25.1% respectively. However, despite some hiccups in the latter part of 2007, the growth in emerging and developing nations remained a robust 7.9% surpassing growth attained in 2006.
Moreover, the cumulative oil bill of developing countries (importers) has increased by $971 billion since 2003. The current account situation of these oil importing developing economies is deteriorating, inflation as well as interest rates are on the rise, GDP and exports are slowing; the fragile macroeconomic context of a few of them adds to the worries of negative impacts. The median inflation has surged to 7.6%, for a third of the economies inflation has exceeded 10% (India 11.63%, Vietnam 26%, Chile 16% & Russia 15.1%). Moreover, WEO estimates that consumer prices in emerging and developed economies during FY ‘09 will also grow by around 5.7%. Though the interest rates have increased, yet the financial condition of a majority of developing economies remains supportive by historical measures and liquidity is ample. The Outlook for Developing Economies precisely states that the expansion in developing countries is projected to moderate gradually to about 6% in 2009, with all regions slowing but continuing to record strong results. While in the midst of administrative restriction on investment & reduced import from US, the economic growth of China will come down to a more sustainable 8.5% by 2009, high interest rates and fiscal tightening will slow India’s growth story too.
Certainly, a more broad-based global economy is a healthy trend, but at the same time, their robust economic growth has also been pivotal in generating some negative repercussions for the global economy.
However, as compared to earlier financial disruptions, it is startling to note that the direct spillovers of the financial crisis that began in August 2007 have been contained to a large extent. The emerging and developing economies have been less affected by the turbulence in the financial markets. Nevertheless, on account of global integration of the markets (as they are not fully insulated) the financial markets have been jittery in these economies as well. Sample the performance of the last quarter of FY ‘08 in the key markets of emerging economies: Brazil, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, MSCI Asia, Japan, India and China have respectively given negative returns to the tune of 4.6%, 4.8%, 10.2%, 10.3%, 11.5%, 18.2%, 22.9%, and 25.1% respectively. However, despite some hiccups in the latter part of 2007, the growth in emerging and developing nations remained a robust 7.9% surpassing growth attained in 2006.Moreover, the cumulative oil bill of developing countries (importers) has increased by $971 billion since 2003. The current account situation of these oil importing developing economies is deteriorating, inflation as well as interest rates are on the rise, GDP and exports are slowing; the fragile macroeconomic context of a few of them adds to the worries of negative impacts. The median inflation has surged to 7.6%, for a third of the economies inflation has exceeded 10% (India 11.63%, Vietnam 26%, Chile 16% & Russia 15.1%). Moreover, WEO estimates that consumer prices in emerging and developed economies during FY ‘09 will also grow by around 5.7%. Though the interest rates have increased, yet the financial condition of a majority of developing economies remains supportive by historical measures and liquidity is ample. The Outlook for Developing Economies precisely states that the expansion in developing countries is projected to moderate gradually to about 6% in 2009, with all regions slowing but continuing to record strong results. While in the midst of administrative restriction on investment & reduced import from US, the economic growth of China will come down to a more sustainable 8.5% by 2009, high interest rates and fiscal tightening will slow India’s growth story too.
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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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